It's Oscar Sunday! To celebrate the biggest night in movies, here are my predictions on what will win and what could win, as well as my opinions on what should win and what should have been nominated in the major categories. Off we go!
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Nominees: The Father
Judas and The Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Will Win/Should Win: Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Could Win: The Trial Of The Chicago Seven
Should Have Been Nominated: Soul
It's been a couple years since there's been a clear frontrunner in the Best Picture race. In the past few years, it's either been completely up in the air or a two-way race between two films. This year, there's no doubt that Chloé Zhao's masterpiece Nomadland will take the top prize. As it rightfully should. The drama has been consistently winning Best Picture prizes left and right at almost all of the major awards shows. That being said, there's always a chance that Aaron Sorkin's true-life drama The Trial Of The Chicago Seven could pull an upset, though that seems highly unlikely at this point.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Nominees:
Could Win: Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
David Fincher - Mank
Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round
Will Win/Should Win: Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
Should Have Been Nominated: Florian Zeller - The Father
Along with her film, Chloé Zhao has also been picking up Best Director awards left and right. The category made history this year by nominating two women as well as Zhao being the first WOC to be nominated for the award. Once Zhao (expectedly) wins, she'll be only the second women ever to win the award. Zhao did such an impeccable job directing Nomadland that it's extremely hard to argue against her. There's still a slight, but highly unlikely chance, that Lee Isaac Chung could win the top prize as well for Minari.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees:
Should Win: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Steven Yeun - Minari
Should Have Been Nominated: Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
The late Chadwick Boseman is expected to pick up his first Oscar win for his final performance before his untimely death in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. It'd be quite the perfect way to commemorate the brilliant career of Boseman. That being said Riz Ahmed also gave an incredible performance in Sound of Metal that is also deserving of a win and acting veteran Anthony Hopkins' powerhouse performance in The Father could possibly walk away with the award tonight.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees:
Could Win: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Will Win/Should Win: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Should Have Been Nominated: Rosamund Pike - I Care A Lot
In normal years, Best Picture would be the most anticipated category of the night, though this year it's a bit different. This is a race that should have been easy. Carey Mulligan gave the performance of the year with her leading turn in Promising Young Woman. Yet, at almost every awards show a different actress has taken home Best Actress. That being said, Mulligan has been picking up some steam again, so that is a good sign that she'll be walking home with the gold statue tonight. If the Academy is wanting to have all the acting winners to be POC, the clear choice here would be Viola Davis.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Nominees:
Could Win: Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago Seven
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami
Should Win: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
LaKeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Have Been Nominated: Alan Kim - Minari
Daniel Kaluuya's portrayal of Fred Hampton winning Best Supporting Actor tonight looks to already be a done deal. Ever since the movie premiered at Sundance back in January, Kaluuya has won almost every televised award show. There could be a chance that him and his co-star LaKeith Stanfield could split the vote and the award will go to Cohen, though at this point that seems highly unlikely.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Nominees:
Could Win: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent MovieFilm
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Will Win/Should Win: Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Should Have Been Nominated: Swankie - Nomadland
Yuh-Jung Youn seems to be the favorite to win tonight for her stellar work in Minari. A highly celebrated actress in South Korea, Youn's win would likely help boost her fame here in the States. That being said her win isn't as clear as some of the other categories, Maria Bakalova could possibly walk home with the gold tonight for her work in the Borat Subsequent MovieFilm, though it's extremely rare for a performer to even be nominated in this category for a comedic performance let alone win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Will Win/Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago Seven
Should Have Been Nominated: Soul
Emerald Fennell's timely screenplay for Promising Young Woman, should have this win in the bag. Though Aaron Sorkin (who wrote The Trial of the Chicago 7) is treated as Hollywood royalty, so it'd be ignorant to say that he doesn't have a shot at walking home with the gold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Could Win: The Father
Will Win/Should Win: Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Should Have Been Nominated: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
It's a tight race between The Father and Nomadland and the argument that could be made here is that The Father is far more dialogue driven than Nomadland which is more director driven. Though the winner of the screenplay category usually goes hand in hand with the Best Picture winner, which makes it a bit more likely that Nomadland will be triumphant.
AS FOR THE REST OF MY PREDICTIONS:
Best Animated Feature Film: Soul
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Costume Design: Emma
Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
Best Documentary Short: A Love Song For Latasha
Film Editing: Sound of Metal
Best International Feature: Another Round
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Original Score: Soul
Best Original Song: Husavik - Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Short Film (Live-Action): The Letter Room
Best Short Film (Animated): If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
How many did I get right? How many did I miss the mark? We'll find out in mere hours when the 93rd Academy Awards premiere tonight.